The Beginning of a New Era (Again...)
With the owners’ lockout of the players finally over, it is time for the Browns to begin training camp. This upcoming season marks yet another drastic change in both the coaching staff and scheme as the franchise tries to find an identity. Without question, the lockout was damaging to not only the Browns, but any team that made a coaching change in the off-season, had plans to change schemes, or overturned their roster. In just a few short weeks, new head coach Pat Shurmur is faced with the daunting task of installing his version of the West Coast Offense, and implementing a new 4-3 scheme on defense. Both systems are what Browns President Mike Holmgren utilized in Green Bay and Seattle as head coach. I should point out that as a head coach, Holmgren led the Seahawks to the Super Bowl (losing to Pittsburgh), and the Packers to two Super Bowls (beating New England, losing to Denver). Starting this year, Holmgren is officially on the clock for results after hand-picking his coach (Shurmur) and dumping the final remnants of the previous régime since taking control of the front office.
Without getting too technical, the changes the Browns are making on defense sound basic, but in reality they are not. The Browns have utilized a 3-4 defensive scheme since Romeo Crennel was first hired as head coach. In the 3-4, there are 3 down lineman, 4 linebackers and 4 defensive backs. In this set, the linebackers are expected to create pressure on the quarterback from blitzes that come from different angles, or drop into zone coverage and bait the quarterback into making bad throws. The negative of this set (as anyone who has watched a Browns game will tell you) is that the defense is very susceptible to the opposing offense running the ball. As previously stated, the Browns are switching to a 4-3 set this season. In this scheme, there are 4 down lineman, 3 linebackers and 4 defensive backs. In the 4-3, the defensive line is primarily responsible for rushing the passer with the linebackers occasionally blitzing. This set is more conducive to stopping the run, and in the AFC North division it is preferable from this observer’s perspective as both Pittsburgh and Baltimore run the ball effectively. The downside to this set is that if the defensive line is unable to generate a pass rush, the opposing quarterback will have time to go through his progression and deliver the ball to his receiver. The issue the Browns will have this season is that most defensive players (based on their athleticism or skill set) are suited to play in either the 3-4 or 4-3, but not both. Needless to say, the defense will be a work in progress and it will take some time to bring in the personnel needed to make it effective.
Also new this season will be coach Shurmur’s version of the West Coast Offense. In this system, the base formation contains only one running back, and does not use a lead-blocking fullback. Depending on down and distance, the Browns will use a 2 wide receiver/2 tight end set, a 3 wide receiver/1 tight end set, or a 4 wide receiver set without a tight end. In this offense, the Browns will use a lot of short or intermediate passing along with the power running of running back Peyton Hillis. This offense should benefit quarterback Colt McCoy as accuracy and decision making are his two best attributes. It will be his responsibility to read the defense and deliver the ball on time to his receivers. If the Browns are to have any chance at success this season, the offense must accomplish two things: limit turnovers, and put points on the board. It is the former that piqued my interest, and led me to do the research for this article.
There are two clichés that football commentators, coaches, and analysts use when breaking down a matchup on Sundays (or Mondays, or Thursdays). The first is that “the team that wins all three phases of the game- offense, defense, and special teams is who will be victorious today” and the second is “the team that wins the turnover battle will most likely win this game.” I decided to look into the turnover aspect to see if I could identify any trends. The results were rather startling. I compiled the turnover data from every single game the Browns have played since their reincarnation into the NFL in 1999 (taken from the box scores on the Browns team page at www.profootball-reference.com). If you have followed the team over the last 11 years, you are aware that the team has been pretty futile, to the tune of a 64-129 record (.332 win %), and only one playoff season. There are a multitude of reasons for the record being as poor as it is, and they are too many to list in this space. However, if one were to look exclusively at the team’s record based on the result of the turnover differential a pattern emerges:
| Turnover Differential | Wins | Losses | Win Percentage |
| </= -2 | 6 | 50 | 10.71% |
| -1 | 9 | 30 | 23.08% |
| 0 | 9 | 27 | 25.00% |
| 1 | 14 | 14 | 50.00% |
| >/= 2 | 26 | 8 | 76.47% |
To explain the data, I took the Browns record in 5 different scenarios with respect to the turnover differential: less than or equal to -2 (where the Browns had at least 2 more turnovers than the opposition), -1, even, +1 and greater than or equal to +2 (where the opponent had at least 2 more turnovers than the Browns). As you can see, the winning percentage increases dramatically as the ratio turns in the Browns favor. Limiting the amount of turnovers on offense, and forcing turnovers on defense directly correlates into winning games at a higher percentage. Keep this in mind when watching the team this season. Hopefully Colt McCoy is able to thrive in the new system, and the defense is able to make enough plays to give the team a chance at a respectable first season for new head coach Pat Shurmur. It will be interesting to see how the season plays out. I am not expecting anything better than a 6-10 record. However, going forward, I think the team has the right people in place in the front office to both draft the right types of players and acquire others through trades and free agency. For the first time in a long time, the Browns have the owner, front office and coach all on the same page and going in the same direction. Good Lord willing it pays off with a successful run over the next several years for a franchise and city that desperately wants to win.
I think there is a direct correlation between QB experience and turnovers. And, no pun intended, but the Browns high turnover of QBs in their 12 years back, has a major effect on that. They haven't had the same QB for more than a couple years at a time.
ReplyDeleteFactually correct. Constant change has derailed the franchise, and the lack of a good quarterback obviously has hindered the offense. The west coast offense should in theory be good for Colt, but if the season doesn't go well I would not be surprised if the Browns use both 1st rd picks they have and try and trade up to get Andrew Luck.
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