FedEx Cup/The Barclays Preview

                   

FedEx Cup Playoffs/The Barclays Preview

What: Playoffs Tournament #1; The Barclays

Where: Plainfield Country Club, Edison NJ

When: 8/25-8/28

TV: Golf Channel T/F 3-6pm, Sat 1-230 pm, Sun 12-130; CBS 3-6pm Sat, 2-6pm Sun

Tee Times:  http://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/r027/tee-times.html

PLAYOFFS? YOU WANT TO TALK ABOUT... PLAYOFFS? Ah, yes. The now infamous tirade from former NFL head coach Jim Mora Sr.(or, the old dude in the Coors Light commercial) At any rate, the PGA Tour's FedEx Cup Playoffs begin on Thursday, and I am very much looking forward to the next 5 weeks. The  1st event is this week's The Barclays, at Plainfield Country Club. Interestingly enough, this course has not held a Tour event before. As such, I am not familiar with it, so it will be hard to do much of a preview for the event. The Tour takes next week off, and then it is a frantic 3 weeks to crown a champion at the Tour Championship. The top 125 players this season are eligible for the playoffs based on their point totals accumulated from how they placed in the tournaments they competed in. The rankings coming into the playoffs shape up like this:

After this week's event, players 101-125 will be eliminated from the competition. Next week, the remaining players will compete in the Deutsche Bank Championship at TPC Boston. Players 71-100 will be eliminated after that event. After a week off, the remaining players will participate in the BMW Championship at Cog Hill outside of Chicago. The top 30 players will compete in the final tournament, The Tour Championship at East Lake in Atlanta. The first 3 FedEx Cup tournaments carry 5x the points of a regular Tour event, so players towards the bottom of the standings have a chance to make a big jump. In the Tour Championship, the points are reset so that any player in the top 5 that wins the Tour Championship automatically wins the entire Playoffs, and the 10 million dollar purse. 

While the points component sounds like it would be difficult to follow, the TV graphics constantly update to the minute. It is actually very intense as there are big swings in the standings every few holes. This week could potentially become pretty crazy as Hurricane Irene threatens the Eastern Seaboard this weekend. I'm not sure what the Tour plans on doing if the weather becomes an issue, but I could possibly see them playing 36 holes on Saturday if necessary. The main storylines to follow during the tournament are who from the bottom 25 players makes a jump in the standings, and who among the top players are in top form. Over the last 2 years, only 10 players out of the bottom 50 (collectively) have made the cut to the Deustche Bank Championship. From the research that I've done about the course, it seems to favor players who are accurate off the tee, don't make mistakes, and are elite level putters. There are only a few long holes, which takes away the advantage of the big hitters. Also, the 18th hole is a driveable par 4, measuring just 285 yards. It does play uphill which means it will play longer than the listed yardage. That being said, there are a few areas of very long wispy type grass that will bring high scores into play.

Over the course of the last 4 years, nobody has played better in these FedEx Cup events than Steve Stricker. He has a remarkable 10 finishes in the top 10 (out of 16 events), and has won 3 events including the inagural FedEx Cup tournament in 2007. This has garnered him the nickname "Mr. September".  However, he hasn't won the FedEx Cup in any year. A lot of experts are picking him to pull it off this season. Veterans have performed better than the young guys in the playoffs, so that would favor guys in the top 10 like Stricker, Donald, Mickelson, Choi, and Toms. It is virtually impossible to pick a winner just because there are so many guys that can win. I will get more in-depth with the field and course next week at TPC Boston. As it stands, I look forward to watching the action this weekend and to see who from the bottom 25 makes the cut for next week. Only a total of 10 players (out of 50) the last 2 years have made the jump from 101-125 into the top 100. The highest overall finish in the playoffs after starting in the bottom 25 is 8th, accomplished by Heath Slocum in 2009. I'll be back in this space next week with another post. Until then, enjoy the playoffs!

Glory's Last Shot

 93^rd PGA Championship Preview

Atlanta Athletic Club, 18th hole

2001 Champion, David Toms

Course: Atlanta Athletic Club, Johns Club, GA

When: 8/11-8/14

TV: 1-7pm Thurs/Fri, TNT; 11am-2pm, TNT, 2pm-7pm CBS Sat/Sun

Defending Champion: Martin Kaymer (277*, won in playoff)

Tee times: http://www.pga.com/pgachampionship/2011/scoring/tee_times.cfm

            “Glory’s last shot”. This phrase used to carry more meaning just a few short years ago, before the creation of the FedEx Cup (the PGA TOUR’s “playoffs”). That phrase used to signify the end of significant golf tournaments until the following season. As it stands, it still represents a player’s last chance at winning one of the four “major” championships of the season. Further, the top 10 roster spots for both the United States and International President’s Cup teams will be locked in Sunday evening. There is a lot riding on the line this week for a large number of players. As history will show, of the four majors, the PGA has produced the most journeymen winners. By that I mean, players without much of a track record have won the tournament more frequently than any of the other three. Will a player come from nowhere and contend this weekend? Only time will tell.

            As predicted last week, Tiger Woods did not factor whatsoever in last weekend’s WGC Bridgestone Invitational. Also predicted last week, Adam Scott and his caddy, Steve Williams stole the headlines. I did not foresee the circus that followed the tournament, or Scott winning per se, just that if he contended it would be a big story. Once again, I am not predicting Tiger to be much of a factor. He will lead all of the press coverage on Sportscenter, but that will be in name value only. I can see Scott contending again this weekend, but it is extremely difficult (and rare) for a player to win back to back tournaments. I’ll get to my top players in just a bit.

            Atlanta Athletic Club is a challenging golf course and will provide a tough test for the field this week. The course plays very long off the tee, and the greens will be very fast. This means that hitting tee shots in the fairway is of the utmost importance. It also means that it will be difficult to get the ball close to the hole. That being said, these are the best players in the world, and I would be shocked if the scoring is high. I would expect the winning score to be anywhere from 8 to 12 shots under par. There are two holes of note: the 265 yard par 3 15^th and the 507 yard par 4 18^th. For starters, a par 3 that plays more than 230 yards is extremely rare. The green is narrow, and there is water to the right. Making a par on this hole would be considered a minor miracle depending on where the pin is located. The finishing hole also plays over water on the second shot. When the tournament was last played at this course in 2001, David Toms laid up with his second shot instead of going for the green (he held a one shot lead). He went on to make a par and win the tournament (photo above). The pressure will be intense Sunday afternoon, and these closing two holes will make for some great drama.

            One of the interesting dynamics of major tournaments is always the draw of the groups in the first two rounds. This week will have several groups that feature the top players in the game. They are as follows:

1)    Rory McIlroy, Darren Clarke, Charl Schwartzel

2)    Matt Kuchar, Lee Westwood, Jason Day

3)    Steve Stricker, Paul Casey, Miguel Angel Cabrera

4)    Davis Love III, Tiger Woods, Padraig Harrington

5)    Dustin Johnson, Rickie Fowler, Sergio Garcia

6)    David Toms, Vijay Singh, Phil Mickelson

       

              There are also several groups that feature past champions of this event, as well as other top TOUR  pros that are near the top of the FedEx Cup standings. My top picks to win this weekend are Rory McIlroy, Jason Day, and Steve Stricker. McIlroy did not have a good first round last week at Firestone, but he rallied to post three consecutive solid rounds to finish in a tie for 6^th. As I mentioned last week, Rory had a record breaking performance at the U.S. Open in June, and there is no reason to believe that he won’t be near the top of the leaderboard this weekend. Jason Day played phenomenal golf last weekend to finish in a tie for 4^th place. He has the power and moxie to make a run at his first major this weekend. Finally, I think that Steve Stricker has a great chance to win his first major at the age of 44. I should point out that he is my favorite player on the TOUR, and if he were to win I would be really fired up. While he isn’t the longest hitter, he possesses and outstanding short game and is arguably the best putter in the world. 
            Obviously, all of the game’s best players are in the field this week, and any of them can win. There are also a handful of players off the radar and it’s always possible a guy will come out of nowhere. That is part of the beauty of the game of golf: everybody who tees it up has a chance to win. I hope that some of you checked out last weekend’s tournament. I really hope that everyone watches at least the last round on Sunday afternoon. Besides, what else do you have to do?

World Golf Championships: Bridgestone Invitational Preview

WGC: Bridgestone Invitational Preview + The Return of Eldrick (Does it Matter?)

Course: Firestone Country Club (South Course); Akron, OH

When: 8/4-8/7

TV: Golf Channel 2-6pm Thurs/Fri, 12-130pm Sat/Sun; CBS 2-6pm Sat/Sun

Defending Champion: Hunter Mahan (268)

               

                You may have heard that Tiger Woods will return to competitive golf at this week’s WGC Bridgestone Invitational. I will pose the question: does it matter? Quite frankly, I will be stunned if Tiger is on the first page of the leaderboard at any point on the weekend. This is not your run-of-the-mill PGA TOUR event. To even qualify for a WGC event, a player has to be in the top 50 of the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR) or have played in the most recent Ryder Cup. These are the top players in the world, and to expect Tiger to just show up 3 months removed from his last competitive round (which lasted a total of 9 holes) and contend is not very realistic. This isn’t 2008 where Tiger could win the most difficult tournament in the world on one leg. Unless you live under a rock I don’t need to go into details about his fall from grace. He also has gone through a severe knee injury, and the reason he hasn’t teed it up since May is because of an injured achilles’ tendon. If he can prove to himself that he is healthy, and puts in the requisite work on his game, he can once again contend and win events. The sport can survive without Tiger, but it is better overall when he is at least in contention.

                With that out of the way, I’d like to take a look at who else is in the field this week. As mentioned above, every player in the field is world-class. In fact, each of the top 10 players in the OWGR will be playing this week. Not everyone in the field is on top of their game at the moment, but it is not out of the realm of possibility for anyone in the field to win. Due to the quality of the field, the tournament usually hangs in the balance until the very end on Sunday afternoon. The signature hole on the South Course is the famous 16^th (which is where the picture above is taken). It is a 667 yard par 5, but it plays much shorter than that yardage as it is severely downhill off the tee. The players’ approach shots are over a pond to a green where the Sunday flag location is perilously close to disaster. Oh, I probably should have mentioned that the winner of the event will take home a paltry $1.4 million and 550 FedEx Cup points. Needless to say, the pressure will be intense on the back 9 holes on Sunday for those contending for the win. There are 4 WGC events per year, and they are all very prestigious tournaments to win. The competition will be intense, and I am very much looking forward to watching the coverage this weekend (and having the leaderboard up at work Thursday and Friday!)

             

             Lastly, I wanted to highlight a few players who are coming into this event in good form. Based on his t-2 finish at the Open Championship a few weeks back, I would have included Phil Mickelson on this list. I say would because he inexplicably missed the cut last week at the Greenbrier, and therefore I do not foresee winning this weekend (but hey, you never know.) Nick Watney has had a very strong season, and is leading the FedEx Cup points list. He also won the last WGC event at Doral in March. Steve Stricker has won 2 of the last 4 tournaments he has participated in, including the Memorial Tournament in Columbus in May, and has finished in the top 10 each of the last 2 years in this event. Both Adam Scott and Dustin Johnson have been in good form for the last few months, which is good for them but also good for the sport. Interestingly, Scott now has Steve Williams as his full-time caddie. He had been on Tiger’s bag for the last 12 years, but their relationship had become strained, and Woods just recently relieved Williams of his duties. This would become a huge storyline if both are in contention this weekend, or if they somehow were to be paired together. Finally, Rory McIlroy returns to U.S. soil for the first time since his historic win at the U.S. Open at Congressional in June. He hasn’t contended in any event since, but he has only played a few events. It would be foolish not to include him in this list.

               

              For those of you wondering why I took the time to write about golf, let me explain. I absolutely LOVE the sport. I love to play (even though I’m not particularly good), and I love to watch it. I even watch the European Tour on Saturday and Sunday mornings. I will be previewing 5 more tournaments in the coming weeks, and later in the fall there will be an in-depth preview of the President’s Cup (with the help of a good friend of mine.) If you are reading this just for the hell of it and aren’t much into golf I will suggest that you give it a shot. It is very easy to follow the ball in HD, and the commentators do a very good job of explaining what the players are trying to do. The crowd will be electric this weekend and if you have never watched a tournament before, this would be a good place to start. Trust me, coming from a guy who used to detest soccer and now watches European club soccer, as well as international competitions, sometimes you just have to dedicate a few hours and give something new a try.

2011 Season Preview + Turnover Analysis

The Beginning of a New Era (Again...)   

                                                                               

                With the owners’ lockout of the players finally over, it is time for the Browns to begin training camp. This upcoming season marks yet another drastic change in both the coaching staff and scheme as the franchise tries to find an identity. Without question, the lockout was damaging to not only the Browns, but any team that made a coaching change in the off-season, had plans to change schemes, or overturned their roster. In just a few short weeks, new head coach Pat Shurmur is faced with the daunting task of installing his version of the West Coast Offense, and implementing a new 4-3 scheme on defense.  Both systems are what Browns President Mike Holmgren utilized in Green Bay and Seattle as head coach. I should point out that as a head coach, Holmgren led the Seahawks to the Super Bowl (losing to Pittsburgh), and the Packers to two Super Bowls (beating New England, losing to Denver).  Starting this year, Holmgren is officially on the clock for results after hand-picking his coach (Shurmur) and dumping the final remnants of the previous régime since taking control of the front office.

                Without getting too technical, the changes the Browns are making on defense sound basic, but in reality they are not. The Browns have utilized a 3-4 defensive scheme since Romeo Crennel was first hired as head coach. In the 3-4, there are 3 down lineman, 4 linebackers and 4 defensive backs. In this set, the linebackers are expected to create pressure on the quarterback from blitzes that come from different angles, or drop into zone coverage and bait the quarterback into making bad throws. The negative of this set (as anyone who has watched a Browns game will tell you) is that the defense is very susceptible to the opposing offense running the ball.  As previously stated, the Browns are switching to a 4-3 set this season. In this scheme, there are 4 down lineman, 3 linebackers and 4 defensive backs. In the 4-3, the defensive line is primarily responsible for rushing the passer with the linebackers occasionally blitzing. This set is more conducive to stopping the run, and in the AFC North division it is preferable from this observer’s perspective as both Pittsburgh and Baltimore run the ball effectively. The downside to this set is that if the defensive line is unable to generate a pass rush, the opposing quarterback will have time to go through his progression and deliver the ball to his receiver. The issue the Browns will have this season is that most defensive players (based on their athleticism or skill set) are suited to play in either the 3-4 or 4-3, but not both. Needless to say, the defense will be a work in progress and it will take some time to bring in the personnel needed to make it effective.

                Also new this season will be coach Shurmur’s version of the West Coast Offense. In this system, the base formation contains only one running back, and does not use a lead-blocking fullback. Depending on down and distance, the Browns will use a 2 wide receiver/2 tight end set, a 3 wide receiver/1 tight end set, or a 4 wide receiver set without a tight end. In this offense, the Browns will use a lot of short or intermediate passing along with the power running of running back Peyton Hillis. This offense should benefit quarterback Colt McCoy as accuracy and decision making are his two best attributes. It will be his responsibility to read the defense and deliver the ball on time to his receivers. If the Browns are to have any chance at success this season, the offense must accomplish two things: limit turnovers, and put points on the board. It is the former that piqued my interest, and led me to do the research for this article.

               

              There are two clichés that football commentators, coaches, and analysts use when breaking down a matchup on Sundays (or Mondays, or Thursdays). The first is that “the team that wins all three phases of the game- offense, defense, and special teams is who will be victorious today” and the second is “the team that wins the turnover battle will most likely win this game.” I decided to look into the turnover aspect to see if I could identify any trends. The results were rather startling. I compiled the turnover data from every single game the Browns have played since their reincarnation into the NFL in 1999 (taken from the box scores on the Browns team page at www.profootball-reference.com). If you have followed the team over the last 11 years, you are aware that the team has been pretty futile, to the tune of a 64-129 record (.332 win %), and only one playoff season. There are a multitude of reasons for the record being as poor as it is, and they are too many to list in this space. However, if one were to look exclusively at the team’s record based on the result of the turnover differential a pattern emerges:

Turnover Differential	Wins	Losses	Win Percentage
</= -2	6	50	10.71%
-1	9	30	23.08%
0	9	27	25.00%
1	14	14	50.00%
>/= 2	26	8	76.47%

                To explain the data, I took the Browns record in 5 different scenarios with respect to the turnover differential: less than or equal to -2 (where the Browns had at least 2 more turnovers than the opposition), -1, even, +1 and greater than or equal to +2 (where the opponent had at least 2 more turnovers than the Browns). As you can see, the winning percentage increases dramatically as the ratio turns in the Browns favor. Limiting the amount of turnovers on offense, and forcing turnovers on defense directly correlates into winning games at a higher percentage. Keep this in mind when watching the team this season. Hopefully Colt McCoy is able to thrive in the new system, and the defense is able to make enough plays to give the team a chance at a respectable first season for new head coach Pat Shurmur. It will be interesting to see how the season plays out. I am not expecting anything better than a 6-10 record. However, going forward, I think the team has the right people in place in the front office to both draft the right types of players and acquire others through trades and free agency. For the first time in a long time, the Browns have the owner, front office and coach all on the same page and going in the same direction. Good Lord willing it pays off with a successful run over the next several years for a franchise and city that desperately wants to win. 

Greetings!

So I figured I should take a few minutes and explain the purpose of this blog... I have always had a huge passion for sports. I grew up playing little league baseball, and basketball and started golfing at the age of 12. I played one year of high school basketball before I decided that it was no longer fun to me. I ran varsity track and cross country for 3 years in high school, and lettered 3 times for both teams. Those 3 years were the peak of my athletic "career" and led to both individual, and more importantly, team success. I studied Sport Management at Xavier University, but I wasn't sure exactly what I wanted to do for a career. I still don't, but I quickly realized that the large majority of entry level jobs in the sports field don't pay very well and that wasn't an option in my situation. I am a huge fan of sports talk radio and podcasts. I've listened to the Jim Rome Show nearly every day for the last 2 and a half years, and the title of this blog references the show. Recently, I decided that I want to write my own opinions and share them with anyone who cares to read them.

I have a very traditional outlook on sports, and the way that games are played. For instance, I absolutely love watching a defensive struggle in football, or a 2-1 pitcher's duel in baseball. High scoring games are fun to watch as well, but that isn't my preferred style. I also like to do my own statistical research, and from time to time I will post some things that are based off this research. I plan on writing my own game previews for each Browns game this upcoming season, as well as a game recap afterwards. I'll also post my thoughts on a wide variety of topics or if anything piques my interest. My first actual piece is a combination of a season preview of sorts for the upcoming Browns season, as well as some statistical research that I compiled that looks at a specific area of the game of football. I look forward to posting as frequently as I can. The great thing about following sports is that there is always something to talk about!

-Chad