Finally, the NFL season is here! To quote Jets linebacker Bart Scott, I "CAN'T WAIT" for Thursday night's season opener between the last two Super Bowl Champions when the New Orleans Saints play at the Green Bay Packers. That will be followed by the traditional Sunday slate of games highlighted by the New York Giants at the Washington Redskins during the afternoon, and the Dallas Cowboys at the New York Jets in prime time Sunday night. Sunday is September 11th, and there will be pre-kickoff ceremonies at stadiums all across the league, but none more significant than those in Washington D.C. and New York City. As has been the case the last few years, ESPN will be showing a double header Monday night that will close out the "opening weekend" (I use quotes since the alleged weekend spans 5 days. In fact, "Thanksgiving weekend" thinks the NFL's "opening weekend" is ridiculous.)
With that out of the way I am going to go through the 4 divisions in each conference and predict how the teams will finish. I am electing not to go with what their record(s) will be simply because I don't feel like going the extra mile to make sure that all of the wins and losses come out to equal one another. First up: The NFC
THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL CONFERENCE
NFC EAST:
1) Washington
2) New York^
3) Philadelphia
4) Dallas
Yes, I am really picking the Redskins to win the East. Yes, I am aware you probably think I'm nuts. Let me explain... Mike Shanahan wins football games. After the disaster that ensued in the nation's capital last year, quarterback Donovan McNabb was traded to Minnesota, and the team acquired running back Tim Hightower from Arizona. Rex Grossman was named the starter a few days ago, and while most people don't think he'll fare well this year, I do. In fact, I see him putting up numbers similar to what Jake Plummer put up a few years ago in Denver. With Hightower and rookie Roy Helu, Shanahan now has a stable of running backs that are a match for his zone blocking scheme. I like the defense in Washington as well this season, led by an elite safety in LaRon Landry and linebacker Brian Orakpo.
I am a big seller on Philadelphia this year. They are a trendy Super Bowl pick amongst talking heads, analysts and fans alike. I am selling for one major reason; the durability of Michael Vick. I don't root for injury (not even for guys on the Steelers) but I have major concerns about a patchwork offensive line (at best) protecting Vick. Backup quarterback Vince Young left last week's preseason game with a hamstring injury and now the team is one injury away from starting the third string quarterback. Furthermore, I have questions about the defense. Yes, they have 2 above average and 1 elite cornerback. Yes, they have an above average defensive line. However, they are weak at linebacker, and are extremely susceptible to the run. Teams that can't stop the run don't win games at a consistent rate. Lastly, there are several advanced metrics (I'll spare you the details) that show that Michael Vick played at an absurdly lucky rate in terms of lack of interceptions last year. In short, I am betting against Vick this season and that will mean the Eagles come up short. Similarly, the Cowboys defense is going to get run on all season. The team did hire new offensive coordinator Rob Ryan this offseason, but a change in scheme can only do so much when you are lacking in personnel. The Cowboys will need to consistently win high scoring games to make the playoffs this season, and I don't trust Tony Romo in terms of making big time plays in the 4th quarter, and also to stay healthy for 16 games.
Lastly, I have the New York Giants coming in 2nd place in the division, but qualifying for the playoffs as a wild card team. Frankly, I don't have a lot of support for this claim outside of a gut feeling. Eli Manning threw 25 interceptions last season but a significant amount of bad luck came into play in terms of tipped passes, or dropped passes by receivers that ended up being picked off. The team still has one of the best defensive lines in the league, and it will only be better when Osi Umenyora returns from injury a few weeks into the season. There is a whirlwind surrounding the team but I am buying that it will lead to the locker room solidifying and playing above it, much like they did in 2006-07. In fact, I think the Giants are a dark horse team to make the Super Bowl this year.
NFC North:
1) Green Bay#
2) Chicago
3) Detroit
4) Minnesota
I am going to be brief in my explanation of Green Bay as division champion (this is the easiest pick of the 8). They won the Super Bowl last season. A plethora of talented players were injured last season who will return to this year's squad. They have, in my opinion, the best quarterback in the league in Aaron Rodgers. The defense can stop the run and the pass. I don't think I need to say anything else here.
Detroit is the league's feel-good story this preseason. After years of being a downtrodden franchise (along with the city in general), they have overhauled the roster and coaching staff and appear to be on the upswing. Led by defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, the defensive line will be feared by opposing quarterbacks all season. I have questions about the team's ability to stop the run, and I also have questions about the secondary. While having a great pass rush can win you a lot of games, they can't do it all on their own. After personally watching Eric Wright cost the Browns several games last year (most notably the three touchdowns he allowed to Anquan Boldin of the Ravens in week 3, and also the game winning touchdown at the end of overtime against the Jets) he is now the liability of the Lions secondary. If quarterback Matthew Stafford makes it through the season, they could be a 10 win team. I don't see that happening, and I think they are a 6 or 7 win team.
The Chicago Bears were relatively quiet this offseason. They traded tight end Greg Olsen to the Panthers, and acquired running back Marion Barber and wide receiver Roy Williams through free agency. Both players were disappointments in Dallas, but the Bears are banking on a change of scenery leading to better production. The biggest question with the Bears is how will the offensive line play in front of quarterback Jay Cutler. It is a shaky line, but they have a great line coach in Mike Tice. I see the line gelling enough to keep Cutler upright and able to make plays this year. The defense is one of the oldest in the league so the threat of injury is higher, but they were effective last season. The biggest non-division game on the schedule is the match up with the Atlanta Falcons. I have a hard time seeing Chicago winning this game, and that ultimately will be the biggest reason why they don't make the playoffs.
The Minnesota Vikings are going to have a rough season. Donovan McNabb is past his prime, has below average receivers, and the defense is on the decline. Come December, McNabb will be benched in favor of rookie Christian Ponder and the focus will be on the draft in the spring. It really is amazing to think that the team was nearly in the Super Bowl two seasons ago with the Old Gunslinger at the helm. The team needs to rebuild and find out if Ponder has any potential to run the team. They should also think about trading Adrian Peterson. That won't happen, but it is the fastest way to acquire draft picks to fix the holes all over the roster.
NFC South:
1) New Orleans#
2) Atlanta ^
3) Tampa Bay
4) Carolina
Let me get this out of the way: Carolina is awful, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they pick #1 overall for a second straight year. They have zero chance of contending for a playoff spot, and I’m now done writing about them.
Tampa Bay had a very surprising 10-6 record last season, but they had a very easy schedule. To quote the great Jim Ross of the WWE “Business is about to pick up!” (Yes, I went there.) The schedule will be considerably more difficult this season, and they are still an extremely young team. I was very underwhelmed with their (lack of) moves this offseason, and I expect the defense to regress this season. Josh Freeman is developing into a very good starting quarterback, but he has a very young receiving corps to throw to. Young teams have a hard time performing consistently, and as such I have a hard time seeing the Bucs being anything better than 8-8.
The battle for the division crown in the South will be a war all season long. Both New Orleans and Atlanta are loaded on offense, and will score nearly at will this season. However, New Orleans has a better defense than Atlanta, and that ultimately will be the difference in their two head-to-head matchups. After being waxed by Green Bay in the playoffs last season, Atlanta traded their 1st, 2nd, and 4th round picks in the 2011 draft and also their 1st and 4th picks in next year’s draft to Cleveland to acquire wide receiver Julio Jones. While he is a tremendous athlete, it is extremely rare for a rookie wide receiver to have an impactful first season. That said, most rookie receivers don’t enter an explosive offense where they are the third option on most plays. I bring this up because the Falcons chose to bring in an offensive weapon and give up a lot of valuable draft picks in the process as opposed to using those picks to fill holes on the offensive and defensive lines. After being upset in the first round of the playoffs last year, the Saints completely overhauled their running back stable. They drafted Heisman trophy winner Mark Ingram in the 1st round of the draft, and signed former Chargers running back Darren Sproles. The team parted ways with the over-hyped and underperforming Reggie Bush. In short, the Saints realized that they couldn’t contend for a championship by relying on quarterback Drew Brees having to make every play in the passing game. This team is very dangerous this season, and will be a serious contender to win their 2nd Super Bowl in 3 seasons. Atlanta will make the playoffs as a Wild Card team, but it remains to be seen if they can be a successful playoff team. As good as they have been the last few years, they have not won a playoff game since the Michael Vick era.
NFC West:
1) Seattle
2) St. Louis
3) Arizona
4) San Francisco
The NFC West is the worst division in the league. The best way to describe it is a train wreck. One could put the four teams on four pieces of paper and pull them out of a hat to pick the order they will finish. San Francisco hired Jim Harbaugh in the offseason, and the front office hopes that he can turn around former 1st overall pick Alex Smith’s career. He can’t. Smith has been terrible from day 1, and is the poster child for why quarterbacks who dominated by playing out of a spread offense in college are terrible in the NFL (looking at you, Tim Tebow and Cam Newton). The defense lost Aubrayo Franklin and Nate Clements in free agency and they were 2 of their 3 best players. It’s going to be a long season in the Bay Area. Arizona traded for quarterback Kevin Kolb from Philadelphia after the lockout. Kolb has started a total of 7 games in his career, has a terrible running game behind him and a subpar offensive line blocking for him. Also, outside of all-world receiver Larry Fitzgerald, he has nobody to throw the ball too. The defense is on the decline, and their best player will attempt to play this season with a ruptured bicep muscle. Typing that hurt, and I don’t want to even imagine how much pain Adrian Wilson will experience.
Seattle beat St. Louis in the last regular season game of the final week last season to win the division and make the playoffs. St. Louis has been an extremely trendy pick this preseason to win the division. They did upgrade a bit on the defensive side of the ball, but they are lacking in playmakers on the offensive side. Sam Bradford played very well for a rookie last season, but the guy that called the plays is now the head coach in Cleveland. Josh McDaniels (last seen being run out of Denver) will take over the play calling duties this season. It will be interesting to see if he and Bradford will be on the same page and if the offense will be tailored to Bradford’s strengths. The McDaniels offense is based on vertical passes down the field whereas Bradford is more suited for a west coast offense based on timing and accuracy. Seattle has major questions at the quarterback position with the underwhelming Tavaris Jackson/Charlie Whitehurst combination. Had Seattle been able to acquire Carson Palmer from the Bengals I feel they would be a slam dunk pick to win the division. Outside of the quarterback position, Seattle has a good amount of talent throughout the roster (admittedly, the quarterback is the most important position so this could be a moot point). My biggest reason for picking the Seahawks is that I believe in head coach Pete Carroll. He had a fantastic game plan against the Saints last season in the playoffs, which lead to arguably the biggest upset of all-time. He will find a way to make it happen again this season. The Seahawks also have the ultimate home field advantage in the NFL, making it extremely hard for the visiting team to win.
Let me just say this: it is impossible to know for certain what will happen when making predictions of this nature. I listen to a plethora of podcasts and radio shows as well as reading articles and base my opinions off of this information. In some of these predictions I agree with the majority of the pundits. In both the East and West I have gone against the consensus picks of Philadelphia and St. Louis. Feel free to comment if you like. I’d like to get some feedback and see what everyone else thinks! AFC predictions, Browns-Bengals preview, and week 1 picks to follow this week. Definitely going to be busy writing the next few days.
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